World Beta Blog

Wowza corn (and all the grains) is going bananas.  Courtesy Finviz:

Here is the first issue of Cambria Quantitative Research (CQR).  The format will change as will some of the content subsections.  The main point of the newsletter (a mix between the breezy style of the blog and the longer white papers) will remain.

We are having a contest over at 99Designs to improve my (very, very poor) Word based design skills.  Hopefully the newer design winner will be killer, but please let me know what you think!  Do you like the format?  What else would you like to see on a one time or monthly recurring basis? I’ve already written most of the next 3 issues touching on tactical asset allocation, the yield curve, and investing in bond drawdowns.  Stay tuned!

We have some internal projects we are looking for some help on.  If you are interested please shoot me an email with a resume and HEDGE INTERN or QUANT INTERN in the subject line.  If you can think of interesting projects or other ways to work together we would consider those as well.

Will take a look at them over the coming weeks, but mainly the duties would fall into two broad areas:

1 – Hedge Intern - This role involves developing content surrounding hedge funds and investment managers.  This would be perfect for someone with a keen interest in the hedge, FOF, or real money industry as you will be learning a great deal about various funds and their strategies.  Appropriate for experienced hire (with expert domain knowledge) or college level that is willing to learn.

2 –  Quant Research Intern – This role requires quite a bit of proficiency in Excel (expert level) and working with very large data sets.  The role will largely entail building Excel models that track and backtest various macro indicators and portfolio systems across all major asset classes.

Long time readers know my feelings about market forecasts.  I was going to write an article about recent predictions by Biryini, Shiller, and Prechter but Jeff Miller beat me to it with a great article “Big Names Big Market Calls“.

S&P500 currently around 1270

Biryini S&P500 to 2854 by 2013 (gain of 124%  or 31% annualized)

Pretcher stocks (he said Dow down 90%) so S&P500 to 128 by 2017 (loss of 90% or -28% annualized)

Shiller S&P500 to 1430 by 2020 (gain of 12%  or 1% annualized)

Interestingly enough, if you use the lowest (5) and highest values (45) for the Shiller P/E Ratio you get to values similar to the forecasts at both ends (300 and 2500).  I think the most interesting but unlikely forecast is all three being correct!