This is pretty cool news. This fellow Marcus (along with Klarman) honed their skills under Heine and Price.
Mr. Marcus’s new firm, Evermore Global Advisors, has launched two mutual funds, Evermore Global Value Fund (ticker symbol: EVGBX) and Evermore European Value Fund (EVEAX). Each fund will hold about 40 securities, he said, and hold onto them for a number of years. The typical holding period will be two to four years, and sometimes longer.
Also here is an article I did for Forbes on Klarman and some of his recent buys and positions.
I spend lots of time thinking about consensus opinion, and how markets can be different going forward. One of my favorite quotes from Klarman:
“I think to take the next step and be a portfolio manager you need both a sense of history and a vivid sense of risk. When Warren Buffett put out a job description for his replacement, he said, “This person will need to be able to imagine things that have never happened before.” I think that’s very, very important.”
Is there any more consensus opinion right now than inflation is coming and interest rates are going up? You don’t see much talk about deflation. The only person talking about it is Pretcher (which of course makes me nervous, he has one of the worst newsletter track records out there via Hulbert).
For a deflationary bull with a good track record check out Hugh Hendry of Eclectica Asset Management.
Meb,
Like you, my contrarian meter is pegged regarding the overwhelming crowd moving in lock step regarding high rates and high inflation. If I lean the other way as my gut is telling me to than I am in lock step with Joe Retail 401K who has been piling into bonds or Rosenberg and Shilling who have watch a 60% rebound with their thumbs up thier behinds.
Could neither group be correct? What if rates and inflation stay tame and within a trading range for several years?
FWIW–David Rosenberg continues to make a very good case for deflation. Being a trend follower, I don't care until the market moves one direction or anther. The article Meb published sometime last year on the track record of forecasting at virtually all levels and areas tells me it doesn't mean crap what any of them prognosticate. All these wonderful rear view mirror types who didn't see it coming at them in 2006-7. In fact I have a standing offer to anyone that I will do there forecasts for half the price and equal accuracy. My poodle has the the same offer out there.
The popular financial consensus seems to be for inflation with the only recommended strategy being TBT. I personally think this is short sighted, Peter Schiff does a good job of debunking TBT as insurance against high inflation. http://www.madhedgefundtrader.biz/Peter_Schiff_...
One thing that is bizarre to me is that almost no one is talking about guarding against both inflation and deflation. As Meb pointed out in his other concurrent post, it is not that expensive or onerous to do guard against both. I personally try to do this, I hold most of my assets in a Permanent Portfolio which is designed to weather inflation and deflation: it holds gold and long treasury bonds for each case. The rest of my money follows a group of trend-following systems that are designed to profit from any impending volatility. In making this choice i am looking at scenarios such as '73-'74 '89 '94 '97 '98 '00, '08, Iceland '09 etc. Here is an interesting read about Iceland. Do you think whatever strategy you employ would ride through this credit market volatility successfully? http://europeanpermanentportfolio.blogspot.com/...
In the spirit of “Imagining things that never happened before”. Here is my effort at some scenarios to think through:
“Market's close for days or weeks and you have no idea where they will open wrt your stops.”
“Short selling is curtailed.”
“Access to withdrawing funds from retirement or brokerage accounts is restricted.”
“Federal price fixing for gold and silver, requires black market transactions to realize any gains.”
“Widespread stock market manipulation using quant algorithms on the Fed's dime.”
“New large sellers/sources of gold and silver whether real or manufactured FUD.”
“Oil embargo.”
“Fed buying lion's share of new treasury offerings through the UK or broker-dealers.”
and most contrarian of all:
“US sets standard for responsible government spending, and launches massive economic growth based in the hot new ____ sector that did not even exist before this year.”
>>In fact I have a standing offer to anyone that I will do there forecasts for half the price and equal accuracy. My poodle has the the same offer out there.<<
Ok, Jim, but does your poodle know the difference between 'there' and 'their'?
Forbes has some pretty lame editors to let a sentence like this go through:
>>According to Klarman's 2006 speech at Columbia University, Baupost had one analyst exclusively analyze Enron for four years that comprised lots of cash but complex liabilities intertwined among more than 1,000 subsidiaries and shell companies. <<
That sentence makes no sense whatsoever.
But then, Forbes allows its online columnists to shill their own businesses in their columns, so no one's exactly accusing it of journalistic integrity.
Ha – you missed one – there is another grammatical error in there. I sent them both edits but they seem never to have made it in the article.
More Deflationists – Bob Hoye, Jim Rickards, Ian Gordon, Bob McHugh, Jim Dines, Mike Shedlock Eric King.
Like the inflationists – they think Gold is the savior – which to me is the greatest concensus of all.
Only Prechter, Hendry don't fancy Gold [yet]
A. Gary Shilling apparently is still arguing for deflation (and investment in long treasuries).
More Deflationists – Bob Hoye, Jim Rickards, Ian Gordon, Bob McHugh, Jim Dines, Mike Shedlock Eric King.
Like the inflationists – they think Gold is the savior – which to me is the greatest concensus of all.
Only Prechter, Hendry don't fancy Gold [yet]
A. Gary Shilling apparently is still arguing for deflation (and investment in long treasuries).