Comments on: Japan, the US, and the Lost Decades http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/12/20/japan-the-us-and-the-lost-decades/ Stock Market and Investing Blog of Mebane Faber Tue, 11 Oct 2011 15:24:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: David_Merkel http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/12/20/japan-the-us-and-the-lost-decades/comment-page-1/#comment-4306 David_Merkel Thu, 24 Dec 2009 09:40:53 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=2275#comment-4306 Mebane, I made a similar comment over at Abnormal Returns today. I will repeat it:<br><br>Too many people think we couldn't have another negative decade in the 2010s. I don't think it is likely, but opinion is too universal there. After all, consider Japan -- it has had two lost decades in a row, and we are following something close to their monetary and fiscal policies, minus the fact that Japan at present self-funds their debt and we don't. Mebane, I made a similar comment over at Abnormal Returns today. I will repeat it:

Too many people think we couldn't have another negative decade in the 2010s. I don't think it is likely, but opinion is too universal there. After all, consider Japan — it has had two lost decades in a row, and we are following something close to their monetary and fiscal policies, minus the fact that Japan at present self-funds their debt and we don't.

]]> By: David_Merkel http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/12/20/japan-the-us-and-the-lost-decades/comment-page-1/#comment-3460 David_Merkel Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:40:53 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=2275#comment-3460 Mebane, I made a similar comment over at Abnormal Returns today. I will repeat it:<br><br>Too many people think we couldn't have another negative decade in the 2010s. I don't think it is likely, but opinion is too universal there. After all, consider Japan -- it has had two lost decades in a row, and we are following something close to their monetary and fiscal policies, minus the fact that Japan at present self-funds their debt and we don't. Mebane, I made a similar comment over at Abnormal Returns today. I will repeat it:

Too many people think we couldn't have another negative decade in the 2010s. I don't think it is likely, but opinion is too universal there. After all, consider Japan — it has had two lost decades in a row, and we are following something close to their monetary and fiscal policies, minus the fact that Japan at present self-funds their debt and we don't.

]]> By: just_doug http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/12/20/japan-the-us-and-the-lost-decades/comment-page-1/#comment-3439 just_doug Mon, 21 Dec 2009 19:59:29 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=2275#comment-3439 Bubbles tend to ultimately find support at the initial inflection point that marked the beginning of the "new era" thinking. Roughly 1995 for the US, which is a long way down from here.<br><br>There are still too many mutual funds, hedge funds, day traders, leveraged banks, real estate shows on TV, and way too much of a risk trade that appears at the drop of a hat for it to be anywhere near an end. It's more indicative of desperation, the mad scramble for a high return life boat, than the next wave of prosperity. Bubbles tend to ultimately find support at the initial inflection point that marked the beginning of the “new era” thinking. Roughly 1995 for the US, which is a long way down from here.

There are still too many mutual funds, hedge funds, day traders, leveraged banks, real estate shows on TV, and way too much of a risk trade that appears at the drop of a hat for it to be anywhere near an end. It's more indicative of desperation, the mad scramble for a high return life boat, than the next wave of prosperity.

]]> By: toptick http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/12/20/japan-the-us-and-the-lost-decades/comment-page-1/#comment-3437 toptick Mon, 21 Dec 2009 15:04:43 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=2275#comment-3437 The other Faber also likes Japan -- as a contrarian play. <a href="http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/marc-fabers-picks-for-2010/" rel="nofollow">http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/marc-fabers-p...</a> The other Faber also likes Japan — as a contrarian play. http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/marc-fabers-p…

]]> By: Jez Liberty http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/12/20/japan-the-us-and-the-lost-decades/comment-page-1/#comment-3435 Jez Liberty Mon, 21 Dec 2009 10:22:46 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=2275#comment-3435 I have liked that Japan analogy for a few years... And it has proven very true so far..<br><br>And I love your tactical asset allocation model as it shows that there are "relatively" simple options for investors to develop market-beating, mechanical strategies, without having to delve into the dark side of highy mathematical quant modelling. I have liked that Japan analogy for a few years… And it has proven very true so far..

And I love your tactical asset allocation model as it shows that there are “relatively” simple options for investors to develop market-beating, mechanical strategies, without having to delve into the dark side of highy mathematical quant modelling.

]]> By: brettalexander http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/12/20/japan-the-us-and-the-lost-decades/comment-page-1/#comment-3433 brettalexander Mon, 21 Dec 2009 03:13:36 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=2275#comment-3433 Meb,<br><br>The obvious follow up question is how did your timing model work when applied to the Japanese market from the 1990 peak? Meb,

The obvious follow up question is how did your timing model work when applied to the Japanese market from the 1990 peak?

]]> By: linccampbell http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/12/20/japan-the-us-and-the-lost-decades/comment-page-1/#comment-3432 linccampbell Mon, 21 Dec 2009 02:27:33 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=2275#comment-3432 What's even more telling and paints the current US picture much worse than what you've shown is adjusting for inflation so it shows that the 2007 peak on a real (constant) dollar basis is actually lower than the 2000 peak, even though the 2007 peak is higher in nominal value.<br><br>The buy-and-hold are gonna love this range-bound bouncing, if they don't already. What's even more telling and paints the current US picture much worse than what you've shown is adjusting for inflation so it shows that the 2007 peak on a real (constant) dollar basis is actually lower than the 2000 peak, even though the 2007 peak is higher in nominal value.

The buy-and-hold are gonna love this range-bound bouncing, if they don't already.

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