Comments on: The Investor’s Manifesto, Black Swans, Poker http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/27/the-investors-manifesto-black-swans-poker/ Stock Market and Investing Blog of Mebane Faber Tue, 11 Oct 2011 15:24:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: WorldBeta http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/27/the-investors-manifesto-black-swans-poker/comment-page-1/#comment-4389 WorldBeta Fri, 30 Oct 2009 23:44:47 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1902#comment-4389 Maybe not predictable, but avoidable....stay tuned... Maybe not predictable, but avoidable….stay tuned…

]]> By: WorldBeta http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/27/the-investors-manifesto-black-swans-poker/comment-page-1/#comment-3075 WorldBeta Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:44:47 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1902#comment-3075 Maybe not predictable, but avoidable....stay tuned... Maybe not predictable, but avoidable….stay tuned…

]]> By: John (aka Masked Financier) http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/27/the-investors-manifesto-black-swans-poker/comment-page-1/#comment-3067 John (aka Masked Financier) Thu, 29 Oct 2009 11:51:25 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1902#comment-3067 Mebane,<br>Thanks for the post.<br>In particular the reference to Michael Mauboussin's reference to Sklansky's poker theory in the context of his investment book.<br>As the developer of the Texas Holdem Investing concept of using poker as a tool and medium to for investor education I am always encouraged when respected investment commentators (such as your good self and Mr. Mauboussin) refer to the link between poker and investing.<br>Keep up the good work.<br>John (aka The Masked Financier) Mebane,
Thanks for the post.
In particular the reference to Michael Mauboussin's reference to Sklansky's poker theory in the context of his investment book.
As the developer of the Texas Holdem Investing concept of using poker as a tool and medium to for investor education I am always encouraged when respected investment commentators (such as your good self and Mr. Mauboussin) refer to the link between poker and investing.
Keep up the good work.
John (aka The Masked Financier)

]]> By: tesikes3 http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/27/the-investors-manifesto-black-swans-poker/comment-page-1/#comment-3064 tesikes3 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:48:11 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1902#comment-3064 Mebane's system is a trend following strategy. Not a trend predicting strategy. It's the nature of the beast. By design you will not get out at the top and in at the bottom. But that doesn't matter. All you want is the fat part in the middle. Avoid it on the way down and catch it on the way up. Making or acting on predictions is a good way to get run over by a bus. And it's totally unnecessary. Develop a system (or use one from a good book :)) and stick to it. Mebane's system is a trend following strategy. Not a trend predicting strategy. It's the nature of the beast. By design you will not get out at the top and in at the bottom. But that doesn't matter. All you want is the fat part in the middle. Avoid it on the way down and catch it on the way up. Making or acting on predictions is a good way to get run over by a bus. And it's totally unnecessary. Develop a system (or use one from a good book :) ) and stick to it.

]]> By: sportbeine http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/27/the-investors-manifesto-black-swans-poker/comment-page-1/#comment-3063 sportbeine Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:51:31 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1902#comment-3063 That is TOO funny. A friend directed me to Unnecessary Quotes a while ago ... and it is laugh-out-loud funny. I will never again be able to read Taleb without thinking of that. Thanks. That is TOO funny. A friend directed me to Unnecessary Quotes a while ago … and it is laugh-out-loud funny. I will never again be able to read Taleb without thinking of that. Thanks.

]]> By: gerrydantone http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/27/the-investors-manifesto-black-swans-poker/comment-page-1/#comment-3061 gerrydantone Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:38:39 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1902#comment-3061 Having read both the Black Swan and the Ivy Portfolio I ponder what a synthesis of the two would look like, if such a thing is possible. I suspect that one would folow the Ivy Portfolio until either a meltdown or euphoria are imminent - in other words, the extremes. Taleb claims that these are unpredictable, but this may or may not be 100% true. it's probably only mostly true. Of course, the value is in anticipating these two extreme market situations, something that the Ivy Portfolio does not claim to do. Therefore a study of market bottoms and tops (such as in the book on Bear Market Bottoms by Russell Napier) would seem to be in order. If one has the guts, one would then act outside of the Ivy Portfolio when a market top or bottom or "inflection" point is believed to be reached. For example, I received the Ivy Portfolio book in late April or early May. At that time, most (I think 4 of the 5) of the 200 day SMA were above the monthly closing prices of the indexes, so you would be out of the market except for bonds. However the market bottom was in March and quite a bit of profit was missed. Napier predicted the late first quarter bottom, based on a number of indicators. If one acted on his advice, one would have done very well. Eventually the Ivy Portfolio would have taken over the decision making after the bottom was in the rear view mirror. I wonder if this could work. Now this is not exactly the kind of Black Swan situation would call a Black Swan. He'd say they're only obvious in hindsight and those that got the market bottom right may have just been lucky. Who knows... Having read both the Black Swan and the Ivy Portfolio I ponder what a synthesis of the two would look like, if such a thing is possible. I suspect that one would folow the Ivy Portfolio until either a meltdown or euphoria are imminent – in other words, the extremes. Taleb claims that these are unpredictable, but this may or may not be 100% true. it's probably only mostly true. Of course, the value is in anticipating these two extreme market situations, something that the Ivy Portfolio does not claim to do. Therefore a study of market bottoms and tops (such as in the book on Bear Market Bottoms by Russell Napier) would seem to be in order. If one has the guts, one would then act outside of the Ivy Portfolio when a market top or bottom or “inflection” point is believed to be reached. For example, I received the Ivy Portfolio book in late April or early May. At that time, most (I think 4 of the 5) of the 200 day SMA were above the monthly closing prices of the indexes, so you would be out of the market except for bonds. However the market bottom was in March and quite a bit of profit was missed. Napier predicted the late first quarter bottom, based on a number of indicators. If one acted on his advice, one would have done very well. Eventually the Ivy Portfolio would have taken over the decision making after the bottom was in the rear view mirror. I wonder if this could work. Now this is not exactly the kind of Black Swan situation would call a Black Swan. He'd say they're only obvious in hindsight and those that got the market bottom right may have just been lucky. Who knows…

]]> By: gerrydantone http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/27/the-investors-manifesto-black-swans-poker/comment-page-1/#comment-3062 gerrydantone Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:38:39 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1902#comment-3062 Having read both the Black Swan and the Ivy Portfolio I ponder what a synthesis of the two would look like, if such a thing is possible. I suspect that one would folow the Ivy Portfolio until either a meltdown or euphoria are imminent - in other words, the extremes. Taleb claims that these are unpredictable, but this may or may not be 100% true. it's probably only mostly true. Of course, the value is in anticipating these two extreme market situations, something that the Ivy Portfolio does not claim to do. Therefore a study of market bottoms and tops (such as in the book on Bear Market Bottoms by Russell Napier) would seem to be in order. If one has the guts, one would then act outside of the Ivy Portfolio when a market top or bottom or "inflection" point is believed to be reached. For example, I received the Ivy Portfolio book in late April or early May. At that time, most (I think 4 of the 5) of the 200 day SMA were above the monthly closing prices of the indexes, so you would be out of the market except for bonds. However the market bottom was in March and quite a bit of profit was missed. Napier predicted the late first quarter bottom, based on a number of indicators. If one acted on his advice, one would have done very well. Eventually the Ivy Portfolio would have taken over the decision making after the bottom was in the rear view mirror. I wonder if this could work. Now this is not exactly the kind of Black Swan situation would call a Black Swan. He'd say they're only obvious in hindsight and those that got the market bottom right may have just been lucky. Who knows... Having read both the Black Swan and the Ivy Portfolio I ponder what a synthesis of the two would look like, if such a thing is possible. I suspect that one would folow the Ivy Portfolio until either a meltdown or euphoria are imminent – in other words, the extremes. Taleb claims that these are unpredictable, but this may or may not be 100% true. it's probably only mostly true. Of course, the value is in anticipating these two extreme market situations, something that the Ivy Portfolio does not claim to do. Therefore a study of market bottoms and tops (such as in the book on Bear Market Bottoms by Russell Napier) would seem to be in order. If one has the guts, one would then act outside of the Ivy Portfolio when a market top or bottom or “inflection” point is believed to be reached. For example, I received the Ivy Portfolio book in late April or early May. At that time, most (I think 4 of the 5) of the 200 day SMA were above the monthly closing prices of the indexes, so you would be out of the market except for bonds. However the market bottom was in March and quite a bit of profit was missed. Napier predicted the late first quarter bottom, based on a number of indicators. If one acted on his advice, one would have done very well. Eventually the Ivy Portfolio would have taken over the decision making after the bottom was in the rear view mirror. I wonder if this could work. Now this is not exactly the kind of Black Swan situation would call a Black Swan. He'd say they're only obvious in hindsight and those that got the market bottom right may have just been lucky. Who knows…

]]> By: Name http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/27/the-investors-manifesto-black-swans-poker/comment-page-1/#comment-3060 Name Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:26:13 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1902#comment-3060 Mauboussin is a REALLY intelligent guy. I have a huge amount of respect for him. And More Than You Know is a great read.<br><br>BTW it's SKlansky not Slansky. Mauboussin is a REALLY intelligent guy. I have a huge amount of respect for him. And More Than You Know is a great read.

BTW it's SKlansky not Slansky.

]]> By: brettalexander http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/27/the-investors-manifesto-black-swans-poker/comment-page-1/#comment-3059 brettalexander Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:50:48 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1902#comment-3059 Meb,<br><br>I find it interesting that one of the themes Taleb constantly pounds is the folly of predictions made by economists, etc. Yet, upon reaching a certain level of media exposure, Taleb commenced to....making predictions. Meb,

I find it interesting that one of the themes Taleb constantly pounds is the folly of predictions made by economists, etc. Yet, upon reaching a certain level of media exposure, Taleb commenced to….making predictions.

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