Comments on: This Time is Different http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/20/this-time-is-different/ Stock Market and Investing Blog of Mebane Faber Tue, 11 Oct 2011 15:24:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Otto Tredder http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/20/this-time-is-different/comment-page-1/#comment-4391 Otto Tredder Thu, 22 Oct 2009 04:52:51 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1836#comment-4391 @CMRCPA<br>You might want to read Anatomy of the bear by Russel Napier.<br><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1905641575/autotradblog-20" rel="nofollow">http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/19056415...</a><br>The main point of the book was to identify which metrics to use to profile these market melt-ups @CMRCPA
You might want to read Anatomy of the bear by Russel Napier.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/19056415…
The main point of the book was to identify which metrics to use to profile these market melt-ups

]]> By: CMRCPA http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/20/this-time-is-different/comment-page-1/#comment-4390 CMRCPA Thu, 22 Oct 2009 00:19:24 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1836#comment-4390 Carmen Reinhart covers the key stats on asset price declines in her paper "The Aftermath of Financial Crises" published in December 2008. I emailed her after reading her paper to see if she had info on the average duration and extent of of the asset price "melt-ups" following these declines. Unfortunately, I got no answer. I think understanding the aftermath, i.e., profile of melt-ups, are a key piece of worthwhile info. After all, if we know the average of the buy low scenarios, it would be nice to know a little about the average of the "sell higher" scenarios that follow.<br><br>- Carl Carmen Reinhart covers the key stats on asset price declines in her paper “The Aftermath of Financial Crises” published in December 2008. I emailed her after reading her paper to see if she had info on the average duration and extent of of the asset price “melt-ups” following these declines. Unfortunately, I got no answer. I think understanding the aftermath, i.e., profile of melt-ups, are a key piece of worthwhile info. After all, if we know the average of the buy low scenarios, it would be nice to know a little about the average of the “sell higher” scenarios that follow.

- Carl

]]> By: Otto Tredder http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/20/this-time-is-different/comment-page-1/#comment-3042 Otto Tredder Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:52:51 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1836#comment-3042 @CMRCPA<br>You might want to read Anatomy of the bear by Russel Napier.<br><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1905641575/autotradblog-20" rel="nofollow">http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/19056415...</a><br>The main point of the book was to identify which metrics to use to profile these market melt-ups @CMRCPA
You might want to read Anatomy of the bear by Russel Napier.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/19056415…
The main point of the book was to identify which metrics to use to profile these market melt-ups

]]> By: CMRCPA http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/20/this-time-is-different/comment-page-1/#comment-3034 CMRCPA Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:19:24 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1836#comment-3034 Carmen Reinhart covers the key stats on asset price declines in her paper "The Aftermath of Financial Crises" published in December 2008. I emailed her after reading her paper to see if she had info on the average duration and extent of of the asset price "melt-ups" following these declines. Unfortunately, I got no answer. I think understanding the aftermath, i.e., profile of melt-ups, are a key piece of worthwhile info. After all, if we know the average of the buy low scenarios, it would be nice to know a little about the average of the "sell higher" scenarios that follow.<br><br>- Carl Carmen Reinhart covers the key stats on asset price declines in her paper “The Aftermath of Financial Crises” published in December 2008. I emailed her after reading her paper to see if she had info on the average duration and extent of of the asset price “melt-ups” following these declines. Unfortunately, I got no answer. I think understanding the aftermath, i.e., profile of melt-ups, are a key piece of worthwhile info. After all, if we know the average of the buy low scenarios, it would be nice to know a little about the average of the “sell higher” scenarios that follow.

- Carl

]]> By: Don http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/20/this-time-is-different/comment-page-1/#comment-3031 Don Wed, 21 Oct 2009 12:29:20 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1836#comment-3031 University of Minnesota has the image.<br><br><a href="http://dcl.umn.edu/dcl/show_details?page=1&search=s%253Df_search_cache_title%252Br_DESC%2526per_page%253D60%2526q%253Do_full%252Bf_digital_id%252Bv_6001618%2526page%253D1" rel="nofollow">http://dcl.umn.edu/dcl/show_details?page=1&sear...</a><br><br>It's tiny though. To get a larger version you need to have access. And without a little blackhat magic, I can't (or won't) get it. University of Minnesota has the image.

http://dcl.umn.edu/dcl/show_details?page=1&sear…

It's tiny though. To get a larger version you need to have access. And without a little blackhat magic, I can't (or won't) get it.

]]> By: macclary http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/20/this-time-is-different/comment-page-1/#comment-3029 macclary Tue, 20 Oct 2009 22:06:29 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1836#comment-3029 Yeah, in general people's investing brains are pretty broken. Though painful, this system is pretty robust and self correcting because capital is inextricably transferred to those who can hold on to it and put it to use ;> We do seem to get into trouble when the government decides to start speculating though.<br><br>"I want to roll the dice a little bit more in this situation towards subsidized housing." -- Rep. Barney Frank 2003 Yeah, in general people's investing brains are pretty broken. Though painful, this system is pretty robust and self correcting because capital is inextricably transferred to those who can hold on to it and put it to use ;> We do seem to get into trouble when the government decides to start speculating though.

“I want to roll the dice a little bit more in this situation towards subsidized housing.” — Rep. Barney Frank 2003

]]> By: Auto trading http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/10/20/this-time-is-different/comment-page-1/#comment-3024 Auto trading Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:43:19 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/?p=1836#comment-3024 That book looks really interesting. Reminds me a bit of the ascent of money and Financial Reckoning Day.<br>Although I swore to myself that I would stop getting too much into macro and discretionary investing (to work on a "simple" automated trading project - slightly similar to your Timing Model: ie its a long term tremd following model) - I would enjoy reading that one.. That book looks really interesting. Reminds me a bit of the ascent of money and Financial Reckoning Day.
Although I swore to myself that I would stop getting too much into macro and discretionary investing (to work on a “simple” automated trading project – slightly similar to your Timing Model: ie its a long term tremd following model) – I would enjoy reading that one..

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