We are up about 25% from the lows. In the 1930 bear there were five DJIA rallies of > 20%, including a 48% rally after the first big dump.
In Japan’s big bear (which saw 80% declines from the 1989 peak) there were even bigger rallies – four rallies of greater than 50%.
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Two points to be made here, both obvious I think. Trendfollowers (CTAs) don’t correlate to stocks but they do correlate to each other.
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1001 Rules for my unborn son.
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I never really thought about buying groceries or supplies through Amazon, but with Prime (free shipping) why not? Link to household supplies 70% off or more.
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It pays to understand the mind-set
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and Soros
and Bespoke
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We just fully subscribed to Global Financial Data, so expect a lot of new research in the coming months. Is it a little depressing that I get this excited about a financial returns database? (Don’t answer that question.)
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Speaking of research, if you bought the Ivy book take a look at the Errata section on the book website. I have fixed all of the errors and the values in the GTAA paper should be correct.
One error was a typo in 2008 – I flipped the bonds return in October from negative -0.9% to positive 0.9%. While this is a very minor error, it did have the effect of flipping the return for 2008 for the portfolio to a slightly negative -0.59% from a positive 1.5% (because timing the bonds would have missed the huge 9% return in Nov).
This illustrates the difficulty of timing the lower vol asset classes, and in the upcoming research we will take a look at all classes of bonds – junk, corporates, 30 yrs, etc. . .
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Anytime you hear the "death of something" it is usually a good time to invest.
love the 1001 from the dad—nice mix in. I've been looking at global financial too, looking forward to seeing your spin. keep up the good work meb.
GFD is a hefty ($$$$) database to tap into!! Taylor and his group have done a wonderful job.
GFD is a hefty ($$$$) database to tap into!! Taylor and his group have done a wonderful job.