Looks like a great strategy for the later stages of bear markets, the main problem is how to avoid being too early. For example, if you had done this strategy on Oct 22 (when the S&P fell below 900 and was in clear panic mode), you would have made a return through April 9th of a mere 5.37%, and you would have had a horrendous drawdown from Nov 08 through March 09.

One could try averaging in over say 6 months, once the initial panic becomes obvious, as a systematic entry plan. But you could get well and truly slaughtered in a 2000-2003 extended bear (late September 2001 would be the time when bottom-fishers would enter on the clear panic selling – 18 months before the eventual low), let alone 1929-32.

Overall this is a great strategy IF one can identify near the low of the bear market. But if you are more than a couple of months early, it's a very dangerous strategy. Given that one can just go long the S&P on 3-4x leverage, or long a bunch of LEAPS, if one has the ability to time the low to within 1-2 months, I am not sure how this strategy improves things. I would prefer to use something based on valuation, rather than just a naive filter.

Basically it looks great but it relies on you being able to pick the bottom, just like almost every other timing-based system for buying at the end of a bear market.

Looks like a great strategy for the later stages of bear markets, the main problem is how to avoid being too early. For example, if you had done this strategy on Oct 22 (when the S&P fell below 900 and was in clear panic mode), you would have made a return through April 9th of a mere 5.37%, and you would have had a horrendous drawdown from Nov 08 through March 09.

One could try averaging in over say 6 months, once the initial panic becomes obvious, as a systematic entry plan. But you could get well and truly slaughtered in a 2000-2003 extended bear (late September 2001 would be the time when bottom-fishers would enter on the clear panic selling – 18 months before the eventual low), let alone 1929-32.

Overall this is a great strategy IF one can identify near the low of the bear market. But if you are more than a couple of months early, it's a very dangerous strategy. Given that one can just go long the S&P on 3-4x leverage, or long a bunch of LEAPS, if one has the ability to time the low to within 1-2 months, I am not sure how this strategy improves things. I would prefer to use something based on valuation, rather than just a naive filter.

Basically it looks great but it relies on you being able to pick the bottom, just like almost every other timing-based system for buying at the end of a bear market.

Meanwhile, Berkshire B was up 19%.

So maybe you buy only the stocks above $1,000 per share . . . .

A bear market rally cannot be too far off.