Comments on: Dead Cat Bounce or the Bottom? http://www.mebanefaber.com/2008/10/13/dead-cat-bounce-or-the-bottom/ Stock Market and Investing Blog of Mebane Faber Tue, 11 Oct 2011 15:24:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Mebane Faber http://www.mebanefaber.com/2008/10/13/dead-cat-bounce-or-the-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-2138 Mebane Faber Tue, 14 Oct 2008 16:47:00 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/2008/10/13/dead-cat-bounce-or-the-bottom/#comment-2138 jon - Yes, 7 of these were when the market was below the 10 month SMA.<br/><br/>own - i'll take a look, but if you have a q you want answered it is always better to email me, i don't always look at the comments. jon – Yes, 7 of these were when the market was below the 10 month SMA.

own – i’ll take a look, but if you have a q you want answered it is always better to email me, i don’t always look at the comments.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.mebanefaber.com/2008/10/13/dead-cat-bounce-or-the-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-2137 Anonymous Tue, 14 Oct 2008 15:52:00 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/2008/10/13/dead-cat-bounce-or-the-bottom/#comment-2137 My stock traders almanac shows eight of the ten best days for the NASDAQ came in 2000 & 2001 - well before the index bottomed out in October of '02. It seems safe to assume that these large up days are no more predictive than any other day. That they sometimes occur near the bottom of a bear market seems more likely due to chance than anything significant. My stock traders almanac shows eight of the ten best days for the NASDAQ came in 2000 & 2001 – well before the index bottomed out in October of '02. It seems safe to assume that these large up days are no more predictive than any other day. That they sometimes occur near the bottom of a bear market seems more likely due to chance than anything significant.

]]> By: OwnPuts http://www.mebanefaber.com/2008/10/13/dead-cat-bounce-or-the-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-2135 OwnPuts Tue, 14 Oct 2008 02:48:00 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/2008/10/13/dead-cat-bounce-or-the-bottom/#comment-2135 I don't think we are going back to the highs so it is more like the 1930's. A huge engine of growth the last 5 years, excessive credit, is gone and will not be returning. Company's will continue to deleverage causing a drag.<br/><br/>Please respond to the two questions in the 10.09.2008 "100% Cash" post comments. I don’t think we are going back to the highs so it is more like the 1930′s. A huge engine of growth the last 5 years, excessive credit, is gone and will not be returning. Company’s will continue to deleverage causing a drag.

Please respond to the two questions in the 10.09.2008 “100% Cash” post comments.

]]> By: Jonathan http://www.mebanefaber.com/2008/10/13/dead-cat-bounce-or-the-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-2133 Jonathan Mon, 13 Oct 2008 22:28:00 +0000 http://www.mebanefaber.com/2008/10/13/dead-cat-bounce-or-the-bottom/#comment-2133 Doesn't your own data strongly suggest the best one-up days come during bear market rallys, thus forming a big part of the basis of your trading system? <br/><br/>Do we have more in common today with 1987 or the 1930s? I'm guessing 1930s -- wholesale deleveraging, worsening fundamentals, consolidation and retrenchment following a period of rapid financial instrument innovation (i.e. new instruments rapidly deployed to the four corners of the financial universe without enough of a knowledge base to know their dangers). What are your thoughts? Doesn’t your own data strongly suggest the best one-up days come during bear market rallys, thus forming a big part of the basis of your trading system?

Do we have more in common today with 1987 or the 1930s? I’m guessing 1930s — wholesale deleveraging, worsening fundamentals, consolidation and retrenchment following a period of rapid financial instrument innovation (i.e. new instruments rapidly deployed to the four corners of the financial universe without enough of a knowledge base to know their dangers). What are your thoughts?

]]>