The following chart is courtesy of Tom McClellan. He writes a daily report as well as a twice monthly newsletter, and they come highly recommended! You can find more info on his website www.msoscillator.com (as well as his older guest post here).
The chart below shows inflation (as measured by the CPI-U) as a leading indicator for unemployment. The CPI time series is shifted forward two years on the chart.
The simple take away is that with inflationary pressures rising, unemployment rates are likely to be going up for the next few years. . .
yup, tough times ahead indeed
Always good to fact check opinions as if real money was used. I track lots of them. The source:
The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index, published by Nelson Freeburg (May92).
From Dec 31, 1991 through today Sept 10, 2008, there has been 247 close trades. BUY/HOLD of the SP00 index has been a 194% gain, annualized at 7%.
Taking all those trades not net of any fees, your gain would have been
114% gain, annualized at 5%.
Pay for a newsletter that loses you money is the American way.